Posts tagged Decision-Making
I literally wrote the book on change management...and still got my own go-live wrong...what a wood duck!

I literally wrote the book on change management...and still got my own go-live wrong.

What a wood duck!

But this is a tension all of us leading complex change need to manage; the "fast thinking" instinct to feel "done" pulls us away from the more deliberate and effective thinking behind a well executed change.

The 'sprint to Christmas' is on - where are you at risk of prematurely celebrating a go live?

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Feel like it's all responsibility without authority? Someone designed your job this way

Pragma is my AI change advisor available at app.pragmaticchange.com.au.

It has fielded the same sentiment four times this month:

"I am accountable for this change and I control none of the levers that would let me deliver it."

Sound familiar? Nobody puts it on a slide.

Responsibility without authority is the working output of a design. It didn't simply happen to you.

Four moves for the middle layer, and two for the senior leader who is now recognising they designed an "accountability sink"...

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It's tough at the top of a 115 year old machine; mostly because no one will tell you it's tough

It's tough at the top of a 115 year old machine; mostly because no one will tell you it's tough.

You are the best-briefed person in the building and the worst-informed person on your own change.

You can feel the sanitisation even when you can't see it. And the standard response is to blame culture, the consultants (it's fine, we're used to it...) or a lack of courage — why won't people just tell me the truth?

Most leaders fail to see that the machine is working exactly as designed; it's just that it was designed in 1911.

So in an era of folding iPhones, what are the mechanisms for getting your best and brightest to speak up?

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Don't squeeze harder. Free people up to move where they need to be.

I love the National Basketball Association (NBA) playoffs.

The best coaches know: at this point in the season, you can't squeeze your players any more. But what is our temptation as leaders, when the pressure is on and all eyes are on us?

I'm sad one of my all time heroes LeBron James is out. But I'm intrigued by what Mike Brown is building in New York. From being fired four times, to (in his first year with the team) making the Finals!

And now, on the cusp of success in a city with notoriously high expectations...he's making it all about the players.

I'm in my own 'playoff series' right now on a project. I just hope I've positioned us right for success.

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What does it mean to lead complex change in 2026?

You know how I'm supposed to open a LinkedIn article. Especially one published on a Monday...who does that?!

Recognisable caricutures from the Boardroom. A leadership vignette. A clever mixture of intruige and just enough panic to make you keep reading...

Instead, I'm compelled to share a gem from my Evernote files, saved during my Masters at the University of Sydney in 2012.

It's from a British physicist named Mark McKergow. He coined a word using Japanese roots because English didn't have one for the concept he needed. It's 2026 and I keep coming back to it.

Because the way most organisations are approaching complex change right now lacks the substance that McKergow was writing about fourteen years ago.

So what does it actually mean to lead complex change in 2026?

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Stay inside your budget by going outside your own boardroom.

The Planning Fallacy is the diagnosis. Reference Class Forecasting is the discipline. Why looking outside your own boardroom — at what actually happened to comparable projects — is the single best corrective to inside-view optimism.

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Your transformation will be remembered for two moments. Are you designing them?

What two moments will your transformation be remembered for?

Not the months of stakeholder engagement. Not the training rollout. Not the governance forums. Not even that beautiful documentation you’ve laboured over.

Over the long run: The emotional peak. And how it ended.

That’s what the research says. And if you’ve led (or been lead into…) a major change, I’d wager it matches your own memory too.

This is called the Peak End rule and applying it deliberately is one of the most underused lenses in change leadership.

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There's a risk in your change program that rarely makes it onto the risk register.

There's a risk in your change program that rarely makes it onto the risk register. And if you've been watching the AI conversation lately...I can guarantee you've seen it! It's not a toxic leader, hostile stakeholder or external 'threat'.... It's someone capable and well-intentioned...but whose confidence has quietly outrun their calibration. It has a name. David Dunning and Justin Kruger documented it in 1999. Most importantly: before you look around the table and start spotting it in others, there's a quick game worth playing first.

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The biggest mistake I see leaders make: the planning fallacy

In crafting up the final touches on Apricot's First Principles of Change (coming soon 👀) I revisited the most consistent guidance I give to leaders and their teams: know what the Planning Fallacy is and actively outsmart it.

The Planning Fallacy is a cognitive bias where individuals underestimate the cost, time, and risks involved in a project while simultaneously overestimating their own previous experience and capabilities.

It's important to grasp the duality of this; we underestimate tangibles and "knowns" (cost, time and risks)...yet we overestimate the intangibles of 'experience' and capability. Take a quick moment to reflect, on how much of organisational life is skewed towards a trust in experience - sometimes for very good reason, but not without consequence.

And the real shocker: if you give highly experienced leaders, new information which challenges their original planning estimates...they tend to be reluctant to change it! 😧

Reasons why this happens and some high-level guidance on mitigating the Planning Fallacy in the full article, but working through the unique cultural nuances and particular 'friction points' within organisations is the kind of work we love ❤️

#change #projectmanagement #organisationaldevelopment

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